Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 70495.014235 74539.599237 78588.949800 82944.248774 87493.109066 92100.906137 97118.197774
2025-04-13 63297.135710 69426.600875 75741.706342 82724.875413 90220.869087 98016.142808 106725.940436
2025-04-20 59087.689491 66706.095100 74733.183797 83801.774113 93742.249518 104286.993573 116298.349505
2025-04-27 55907.775654 64662.677403 74061.512672 84869.815885 96922.317978 109915.531798 124947.882126
2025-05-04 53004.828491 62632.197281 73139.466475 85411.138824 99300.617565 114483.714783 132284.783642
2025-05-11 50244.544840 60545.104707 71957.214953 85473.866070 100978.391596 118138.548830 138496.459679
2025-05-18 47949.977608 58831.813057 71055.185551 85718.925021 102744.234527 121799.331680 144645.645331
2025-05-25 45843.798029 57209.756033 70142.830620 85843.779576 104279.034869 125125.727449 150363.667963
2025-06-01 44499.938562 56400.562704 70102.292614 86916.881522 106860.490816 129622.204611 157418.385875
2025-06-08 42626.726497 54865.816596 69122.541988 86805.397032 107988.135082 132383.305715 162426.474681
2025-06-15 41651.431547 54362.113441 69324.469378 88060.340444 110704.168570 136991.944667 169608.327912
2025-06-22 40496.560720 53581.506433 69143.442431 88811.878631 112787.775004 140838.354445 175892.714536
2025-06-29 39048.882294 52397.977125 68442.462950 88914.245209 114088.582094 143773.536681 181140.590145
2025-07-06 37608.879793 51171.270495 67642.287474 88854.728748 115163.343362 146423.552839 186051.142354
2025-07-13 36862.667047 50789.663898 67862.643863 90034.805762 117744.349946 150893.955770 193179.981947
2025-07-20 36149.187125 50417.333145 68067.868061 91175.522153 120266.709304 155296.729794 200248.748314
2025-07-27 35221.886054 49731.420011 67845.043124 91751.176557 122068.704792 158812.902269 206244.505164
2025-08-03 34120.357845 48778.213440 67246.060020 91818.094733 123209.180332 161501.344998 211222.952965
2025-08-10 33163.002223 47981.910745 66818.887055 92077.887628 124573.458612 164458.133459 216538.281685
2025-08-17 32201.517754 47147.527165 66313.080763 92210.217524 125756.393871 167179.513312 221564.463450
2025-08-24 31706.819543 46923.288624 66589.951323 93347.296072 128221.219559 171515.830737 228634.314168
2025-08-31 30726.164589 46006.499403 65925.702021 93229.173859 129051.848769 173782.589323 233104.407502
2025-09-07 30367.259930 45929.519588 66366.361193 94558.753966 131758.126474 178437.767686 240619.458990